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GDP revision reduces 1999 growth to
1.4%. On 30 June the National Statistical
Institute (INEI) came forward with the much-awaited revision of its
national accounting system. The
INEI revision updated the 21-year-old base data to use 1994 figures for
calculating economic activity. As
expected, the change in base year resulted in a heavy cutback of output in
the range of 10.2%. According
to the revised data, the economy produced US$ 52.028 billion (175.856
billion soles) in goods and services last year instead of the US$ 57.942
billion (195.844 billion soles) under the old accounting system.
The revision also prompted a downward revision of GDP growth
figures from an annual average of 4.5% to 4.2% for the period between 1991
and 1999. For 1999, official
growth figures dropped from 3.8% to 1.4%.
Furthermore, the change in the accounting system resulted in a
major shift of weights for the main sectors of the economy, which reflect
just how distorted the old figures were:
The primary sector (i.e. agriculture) now accounts for only 13.5%
of GDP as opposed to 24.7% of GDP under the old accounting system.
The secondary sector (industry) experienced a 1.8% downward
adjustment from 28.7% of GDP to 26.9% and the tertiary sector (services)
now accounts for 59.6% of GDP instead of the 46.6% under the 1979
accounting method.
Growth pace faster than expected in
May. In May, economic activity,
calculated with the new 1994 base year, increased 6.6% over May 1999.
The result was well above market expectations, which hovered around
4.5% using the old accounting system.
Furthermore, the May economic performance represented an
improvement over last month’s revised 4.8% growth rate.
Within the first five months, GDP was up 6.2% compared with the
same period last year. Economic
activity was driven principally by the primary sectors.
Fishing led the other sectors in growth, expanding 31.0%
year-over-year and was up 21.6% in the first five months of the year
compared to the same period the year before. Manufacturing expanded 13.1% year-over-year, due to a healthy
expansion in primary manufacturing, which profited from higher fishmeal
production. Performance in
the non-primary manufacturing industry was mixed.
While machinery and equipment production increased 38.8% and paper
manufacturing spiked 52% on an annual basis, chemicals and metals
production disappointed, expanding 6.9% and 2.8% respectively - below
April levels. The
construction sector rebounded from last month’s 7.4% contraction with a
6.9% expansion in May.
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