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Historic
elections prompt change. What
was inconceivable just six years ago, has come true. On 2 July, the Party of
Institutional Revolution (PRI, Partido Revolucionario Institucional)
was dethroned after 71 years of uncontested rule, which made it the
longest ruling party in the world. In
the presidential elections, the former head of Coca Cola in Mexico and
candidate for the Alliance for Change (Alianza por
el Cambio),
Vicente Fox, garnered 43.4% of the vote, more than sufficient to put PRI
candidate Francisco Labastida in second place with
36.9% of the vote. The
candidate for the left-wing Alliance for Mexico (Alianza
por México), Cuauhtémoc
Cárdenas, garnered 17% of the vote.
The clear victory for Vicente Fox came as a surprise to most
analysts, since pollsters had reported a narrow lead for the PRI candidate
or a tie shortly before the elections and dispelled fears of political
jitters prompted by the loser in the event of a close election result.
Pluralistic
congress.
According to preliminary results, Fox's coalition also
managed to emerge as the largest political faction in the Senate and the
Chamber of Deputies, although it failed to secure majority.
The Alliance for Change, which is composed of the conservative
National Action Party (PAN, Partido Acción Nacional) and the Green
Party (PVEM, Partido Verde Ecologista de México), garnered 224
seats. The PAN almost doubled
its number of seats in the Lower House from 121 to 204 seats and is likely
to control 53 seats in the 128-member Senate, up from the current 31
seats. That leaves Fox's
party shy of a majority by 12 votes in the Senate and 27 votes in the
500-member Lower House. The
PRI still managed to obtain a large share in the Lower House but lost
almost 15% of its seats. The
Alliance for Mexico, led by leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD, Partido
de la Revolución Democrática) emerged as the country's third
political force. The PRD was the big loser, however, in the elections, as it
saw the number of representatives shrink to 48 from 125 in the last
Congress. Nevertheless, the
PRD retained control of the Mexico City government.
Difficult
but manageable governance ahead.
Lacking a majority in congress, Fox,
who will assume the presidency on 1 December, will face a difficult task
of delivering on his campaign promises.
Fox will be the first president in Mexican history whose party does
not control either the lower house of Congress or the Senate.
Unable to pass laws at will, Fox will have to negotiate with the
opposition on every piece of legislation.
Furthermore, two-thirds of the nation's governorships still belong
to the PRI and after seven decades of rule, the PRI permeates the
country's bureaucracies. However,
Fox should be able to avoid a situation of political gridlock in the
coming legislature. First,
Zedillo has vowed to elaborate the 2001 budget in close collaboration with
the incoming government, which should help pass the law when in power and
may establish a pattern of collaboration with PRI.
Second, when Fox was governor of Guanajuato he proved his ability
to govern without a majority in the state’s legislative body owing to
strong negotiating skills. Third, Fox can also count on his party's control of the
Mexico City assembly to exercise some influence over the PRD, which won
the city's mayoral race and thus depends on the PAN to pass legislation.
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